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Pro members get access to 435 projected signals this season vs 65 on Free.
All Predictions
Pro Analytics
PROBetting Tiers
Projected season performance
~65
Bets/Season
61.5%
Win Rate
+17.5%
ROI
~200
Bets/Season
60.4%
Win Rate
+15.6%
ROI
~250
Bets/Season
59.4%
Win Rate
+13.5%
ROI
All Tiers: ~515 bets/season
Closing Line Value
LIVE+0.72
Avg CLV Points
55.6%
Beat Close Rate
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See if you're beating the market
Edge Decay Alerts
2 ACTIVEDAL @ OKC
OVER 228.5
52%
Edge remaining
BOS @ MIA
UNDER 215.5
89%
Edge remaining
Unlock Edge Decay
Know when to bet before edge fades
Fade vs Chase
-- pt advantageFading Public
--
Avg CLV pts
--%
ROI
Chasing Steam
--
Avg CLV pts
--%
ROI
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Proof the fade strategy works
Steam Risk Monitor
LIVELoading...
Founding member pricing • 50% off forever
Bet Log
+$0
Profit
0-0
0% Win Rate
0%
ROI
+$0
Profit
0-0
Record
0%
ROI
$0
Total Staked
0%
Win Rate
No bets logged yet
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Fade Apprentice
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FADE SCORE
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BETS
--%
WIN RATE
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AVG CLV
--%
ROI
🏆 Badge Wall
Middling
0 / 1
Hedging
0 / 5
Momentum
0 / 5
Discipline
0 / 25
Fade Master
0 / 25
Explorer
0 / 5
👑 Leaderboard
2025-26 SEASONMinimum 5 bets to rank
Badge Name
Tier 1
Badge description goes here...
Complete 1 middle to unlock
Fade Score
Your sharp betting composite
How often you bet high-edge signals
How much you beat closing lines
Win rate weighted by edge
How much edge you captured
SC100 = (FES × 30%) + (CLS × 30%) + (MAP × 25%) + (EVR × 15%)
dtz900
The Architect
55
FADE SCORE
186
BETS
61%
WIN RATE
+0.48
AVG CLV
11%
ROI
CHI @ HOU
UNDER 224.5
+1.5
CLOSING LINE VALUE
ELITE
SIGNAL
+2.3
MODEL EDGE
223
CLOSED AT
About Fade AI
📊 The Reality of Sports Betting
~97%
of bettors lose money
52.4%
win rate to break even
Elite sports bettors achieve 55-58% win rates with ~10% ROI over the long term. That's the benchmark.
🎯 Signal Tiers Backtested
✔ ELITE signals are always FREE
🧠 The Technology
Neural Network
Deep learning model trained on 11,000+ NBA games with 50+ engineered features per matchup.
Real-Time Analysis
Continuous monitoring of line movements across major sportsbooks with steam detection alerts.
Contrarian Edge
Proprietary fade system identifies high-value opportunities betting against public money.
📊 Key Metrics We Track
CLV
Closing Line Value
Edge %
Model Confidence
Steam
Sharp Money Moves
Fade %
Public Alignment
💡 What is Logarithmic Sizing?
Logarithmic sizing scales bet size with edge magnitude using a smooth curve that caps at 4%. Larger edges get proportionally larger stakes, but growth tapers to manage risk.
Formula: 0.04 × (1 − e^(−edge / 1.25))
Edge 0.75→1.8% • 1.25→2.5% • 2.0→3.3% • 3.0→4.0%
Risk Disclaimer
Sports betting involves significant risk of loss. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Fade AI provides analytical tools only — betting decisions are your responsibility.
Add to Home Screen
iPhone (Safari)
Tap the Share button (□→) → "Add to Home Screen"
Android (Chrome)
Tap Menu (⋮) → "Add to Home screen" or "Install app"
Fade AI v1.0.0
Built with 🏀 for smart bettors
Variance & Expectations
📈 What to Expect in Your First Week
Fade AI is a long-term model. Early results can swing wildly in either direction — this is normal variance, not a broken model.
True performance stabilizes after 20-40 signals. Don't judge from the first few bets — judge it from the full sample.
🎯 Tier Volatility Guide
Different tiers have different variance profiles. All tiers are available immediately — choose based on your risk tolerance.
Fewer bets, highest confidence. Most stable short-term results. Best for users new to the model.
Higher volume with solid edge. More action, moderate swings. Good balance of frequency and stability.
Maximum action, smaller individual edge. Expect bigger short-term variance. Excellent over large samples.
💡 Tip: Many users start with ELITE until they understand variance patterns, then add STRONG and VOLUME.
📊 Understanding Short-Term Noise
A 60% model can lose 5-7 in a row and still be performing exactly as expected. This is normal probability, not a broken system.
True accuracy only shows over larger samples. Small streaks — good or bad — tell you almost nothing.
Why You Might Lose Early
Small sample size — 10 bets is statistically meaningless
Random distribution — wins and losses cluster naturally
Tier selection — higher volume tiers have more short-term variance
Normal probability — even 60%+ edges hit cold streaks
📝 Confidence Bands
Each tier has an expected performance range based on historical behavior. Your short-term results will fall inside this range once you have enough signals.
ELITE
57-65%
rolling window
STRONG
55-65%
rolling window
VOLUME
53-63%
rolling window
When to Actually Worry (Rare)
Only if ALL of these are true:
100+ signals tracked
Win rate significantly below confidence band
Edge metrics showing consistent drift
3 early losses ≠ failure. Evaluate over dozens of signals, not days.
🔄 Streak Normalizer
Losing streaks happen to every profitable bettor. Here's what's normal:
2-4
losses in a row
Completely normal
5-7
losses in a row
Expected occasionally
Performance stabilizes over larger samples. Stay disciplined.
Settings
Avatar
Select your Arena profile picture
Bankroll
Adjust if you add or withdraw funds
Starting + Profit/Loss from bets
Betting Strategy
Cap: $100
Signal Tiers
Most selective picks • Edge ≥1.5 required
61.5% win rate • +17.5% ROI • ~65 bets/season
Balanced • 60.4% win • +15.6% ROI
Most action • 59.4% win • +13.5% ROI
ELITE Only
Skip STRONG & VOLUME tiers
Minimum Edge
Only show signals above this edge
Default Odds
Used for bet calculations when odds not specified
Push Notifications
Enable Notifications
Receive alerts on your device
Alert Types
ELITE Signals
Best entry opportunities
Line Movement
When entry is slipping
CLV Results
When you beat the close
Quiet Hours
Silence notifications at night
Upgrade to Pro
Unlock all features
- ★ 435 signals/season (vs 65 free)
- ★ CLV tracking on every bet
- ★ Fade alignment & steam alerts
Account
Demo Mode
Fade AI v1.0.0
Built with 🏀 for smart bettors